ESPC House Price Report: November 2023
Property Market Data - Key Points:
- The average selling price of property in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders dropped 6.6% year-on-year to £273,348.
- The average percent of Home Report valuation attained was 4.2 percentage points lower than last year, recorded at 102.6%.
- The median time for properties to go under offer was 21 days, five days slower than the same time last year.
- 21.4% of property sales went to a closing date.
- Sales volumes declined 11.8% annually, while new property listings increased by 3.1% compared to September-November 2022.
What was the average selling price of property in November 2023?
The average selling price of property in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders dropped 6.6% year-on-year during September-November 2023, to £273,348. This was set against a backdrop of 11.8% fewer property sales and brings the average selling price closer to the figures seen in 2021, following an extensive period of high selling prices.
Lower average selling prices were most noticeable across East Lothian and the Scottish Borders, where average prices were 17.1% and 16.7% lower respectively. However, if we look past these figures, we can clearly see the reasons why prices appear to have dramatically lowered. In East Lothian, there was a decline in the number of houses selling, and a rise in the number of flats being snapped up, with a sharp increase in the number of properties priced within the LBTT Band One bracket of £145,000-£250,000. This trend was mirrored in the Borders, with more homes in the region selling within the lower LBTT bands. If we look at this data combined, it emphasises that the impact on average selling prices is more due to the types of properties selling, rather than substantial price drops across the board.
There was positive news for homeowners in Midlothian and East Fife; these areas recorded slight increases in average selling prices, up 1.3% and 1% respectively, compared to September-November 2022.
If we examine the City of Edinburgh, we can see a very mixed picture which shows how varied the property market remains in the Capital. Overall, the average selling price for homes in Edinburgh was down 4.9% annually, at £293,226.
However, homes in the South West of Edinburgh returned the biggest premium, selling for an average of £356,817 – up 16.5% year-on-year. Conversely, properties in the North West of Edinburgh experienced the biggest change compared to the same time last year, with a 16.7% drop in average selling prices, to £252,112.
The most affordable property type on the market during this period was one-bedroom flats in Dunfermline, which reported an average selling price of £101,525. If we compare this to the most affordable property in Edinburgh (a one-bed flat in Gorgie, with an average price of £147,239), or in East Lothian (a one-bed flat in Musselburgh, selling for £158,305), we can see how dramatically this contrasts with the rest of the market, and how much value the Dunfermline area offers to buyers with a lower budget.
How much of the Home Report valuation did properties sell for in November 2023?
After several years of buyers paying a high premium above the valuation figure as par for the course, the current market saw buyers securing their next home closer to the Home Report valuation. Following the trend seen throughout much of 2023, the average percent of Home Report valuation attained was 4.2 percentage points lower than last year, with properties achieving 102.6% on average.
77.1% of properties sold for at least their Home Report valuation during this time, indicating that the majority of properties still sold for above their valuation figure – just not for the significant premium that sellers had perhaps come to expect.
Buyers in East Fife, East Lothian and Midlothian continued to pay the highest premium to secure their next home, with an average successful bid of 103.4% in East Fife, and 103% in both East Lothian and Midlothian.
By contrast, buyers in the Borders and West Lothian secured properties closer to the valuation figure, with successful bids sitting at an average of 100.9% in the Borders, and 101.3% in West Lothian.
Within the City of Edinburgh, the highest premiums were achieved in the popular areas of Edinburgh East and Edinburgh North, where buyers bid 103.1% and 103.3% respectively.
The city of Dunfermline, in West Fife and Kinross, registered properties selling for an average of 101.8% of Home Report valuation.
How long did properties take to go under offer in November 2023?
During September-November 2023, the median time for properties to go under offer was 21 days, which is five days slower than the same time last year.
Overall, properties are currently staying on the market for a slightly longer period than in recent years, while buyers take time to make informed and educated offers, based on increasing stock levels and higher consideration for their affordability circumstances in the current financial climate.
Sellers of homes in West Fife and Kinross accepted offers the fastest, in a median time of just 18 days.
The market for homes in the City of Edinburgh also moved at pace, with a median selling time of 21 days – mirrored in East Lothian and Midlothian. While this is a few days slower than the times recorded in September-November 2022, it highlights that there are still strong levels of buyer demand in the market, with buyers who are keen to move promptly in their property journey.
Across the market, two-bedroom flats in the popular Edinburgh pocket of Bonnington went under offer the quickest, taking just 11 days to be snapped up by keen buyers. This was closely followed by two-bedroom houses in family-friendly Corstorphine, secured in only 12 days. Two- and three-bedroom houses in Dunfermline also recorded swift sales, going under offer in a median time of 13 days, showing how strong demand is for affordable family homes in the city.
What were sales and insertions like in November 2023?
Across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders, there was an increase in the number of properties coming to the market during September-November 2023, with levels up 3.1% compared to the same time last year. With some stabilisation around interest rates and inflation, it’s clear to see that homeowners are still keen to move.
The ever-popular areas of Dunfermline in West Fife and Kinross, and Corstorphine and Leith in Edinburgh listed the highest numbers of properties coming to the market.
79.6% of properties for sale were listed at an ‘offers over’ price, up from 76% during the same period in 2022.
The average Home Report valuation for properties on the market was £269,846.
As discussed, properties spent slightly longer on the market as buyers considered their wider options. This is reflected in the sales figures, with property sales down 11.8% year-over-year.
In terms of property sizes and styles, one- and two-bedroom flats in Leith sold in the highest volumes, followed by three-bedroom houses, across Corstorphine, Dunfermline and Bonnyrigg, which signals a mixed bag of buyers in the market with a wide range of available budget. This also ties in with the average selling price figures reported on, indicating a higher number of smaller properties available.
21.4% of properties for sale went to a closing date, down from 31.2% in September-November 2022, signalling that sellers are keen to accept a good offer and move quickly, rather than hold out for prolonged viewings and the potential of a bidding war.
What does it mean for the property market?
Paul Hilton, CEO of ESPC, commented: “The three months to November 2023 present a very mixed bag for the local property market, with much variation in the figures across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders, but we can see how this boils down to demand for certain property types, and the buyers that are currently in the market.
“Average selling prices have declined, which may mean good news for buyers but can be alarming for homeowners. Therefore, it’s important to look at the context of this reduction, with one reason being an influx of smaller properties coming to the market, which skews the average figures – so we want to reassure homeowners that there hasn’t been a dramatic drop in the value of property overall.
“There is much to be positive about for first-time buyers, with lower prices in certain regions, fewer closing dates reducing the expectation of bidding a high premium to secure a property, and slightly slower selling times allowing for more considered decision making, as well as more options on the market to choose from. It currently appears to be a no-nonsense market, with buyers keen to make the ‘right’ choice and sellers looking for a smooth, swift sales process across the board.
“With the Bank of England’s recent decision to pause interest rates over the last few months, it’s a positive sign that the market is picking up with more properties being listed for sale – a clear sign of homeowners being keen to make a move, coupled with increasing buyer confidence. As hopes rise that the interest rates will continue to be frozen, with a gradual decline in the months to come, we look forward to seeing how this could positively impact the market as we approach 2024.
“If you’re thinking of buying or selling a property in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife or the Borders, contact your local ESPC solicitor estate agent today.”
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