ESPC House Price Report: October 2023
Property Market Data - Key Points:
- During August-October 2023, the average selling property selling price in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders decreased 7.4% annually to £275,762.
- Properties achieved 103.2% of their Home Report valuation, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same time last year.
- The median time to sell was 21 days, six days slower than August-October last year.
- 79.1% of properties for sale sold for at least their Home Report valuation.
- 23.5% of properties went to a closing date.
Selling prices declined across the board, with mixed outcomes across Edinburgh
The average selling price of property in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders was £275,762 during August-October 2023: a decline of 7.4% compared to the same time last year. In the current financial climate, and with so much uncertainty around affordability for buyers, this is a state of play that is not unexpected and is in line with the trends we have seen in recent months, as buyers bid less over Home Report valuation to secure properties than they have in previous years.
The biggest change in average selling prices was recorded in East Lothian, where a 13.8% annual drop meant the new average price was £268,152. While this figure may appear alarming at first glance, it’s more likely due to an increase in smaller properties selling in the area compared to the same time last year, than a reduction in the actual value of property in the region. The Borders also saw a larger annual decrease of 11.6%, meaning the new average selling price in this region was £211,071; again, the data reveals that this is due to variety in the styles and sizes of properties selling this year versus last year, with fewer family homes selling across the region, but many lower-priced smaller flats being snapped up.
Dunfermline, a property hotspot for the last few years, also saw a decline, as property prices in the city declined 6.9% year-on-year, meaning homes here sold for a reasonable £203,503 on average.
The City of Edinburgh’s average selling price dropped 7.5% compared to the same time last year, taking it to £291,535 for August-October 2023. Again, while this may appear significant at first look, the data presents a very mixed picture when examined more closely.
Edinburgh’s City Centre recorded the largest annual decline, of 14.8%, meaning the new average selling price there was £304,771. This decline is again most likely due to a rise in the number of smaller properties on the market rather than an actual reduction in value; with the recent changes in legislation surrounding short-term lets, many landlords have opted to sell their properties, meaning an influx of smaller homes coming to the market has affected the figures.
Edinburgh South saw a similar decline of 12.6% year-on-year, however Edinburgh South West saw a 12.8% increase, with the new average selling price recorded at £354,734. This hugely mixed picture helps to highlight that all property sales are unique, and while the averages give us a good overall idea of the market, they miss the nuances of the local market that are so important to understand in a property sale.
In terms of affordability, the data for August-October 2023 lays bare the gulf between the most affordable properties in Fife and in Edinburgh. Flats in Dunfermline were the most affordable properties on the market, with one-bedroom flats in this popular location selling for £114,655 on average, and two-bedroom flats coming in at £128,465. In third place was one-bedroom flats in Edinburgh’s Gorgie, which sold for an average of £145,888 – a difference of over £30,000.
Buyers were increasingly keen to secure a property for a competitive price
Properties for sale across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders achieved 103.2% of their Home Report valuation on average, 4.5 percentage points lower than during August-October 2022. This is a continuation of a trend we have seen in recent months, with buyers increasingly keen to secure their next home for a fair price and taking affordability heavily into account compared to previous years, resulting in more careful bids.
Once again, the biggest decline was in East Lothian, where the average was down 6.9 percentage points year-on-year. However, the region still records the highest premium overall, with properties here achieving 104.1% of the Home Report valuation on average. Reflecting on last year’s data, East Lothian substantially outperformed other areas in 2022, with an average of 111% achieved; this year’s figure is more reflective of the market in general, but still highlights that buyers are willing to pay a premium to secure a property in this highly desirable location.
West Lothian also recorded a large annual decline: properties here achieved an average of 100.3% of the Home Report valuation, down 6.6 percentage points on August-October 2022.
Properties in West Fife & Kinross reported the smallest change, with properties in this region selling for an average of 103.4% of their Home Report valuation – a decline of 3.7% year-on-year.
81.1% of properties were listed at ‘offers over’, up 3.6 percentage points from the same period last year.
This change, across the board, of properties no longer dramatically exceeding their Home Report valuations, reflects the stabilising market. On the whole, a majority of property sales are still exceeding their Home Report valuations, but each sale is unique, and it is therefore essential for buyers and sellers alike to work with an expert solicitor estate agent, who will support them through their buying and selling journey and offer local market insights.
Properties took longer to sell, but West Fife and pockets of Edinburgh moved briskly
Throughout August-October 2023, properties took six days longer to sell than they did the previous year, as the median time for homes to go under offer stood at 21 days across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders.
Properties in West Lothian took the longest to sell, staying on the market for a median time of 38 days – 19 days slower than the same time last year. In contrast, homes in West Fife & Kinross flew off the market in less than half this time, taking just 16 days to go under offer, although this is four days slower than during August-October 2022. Aligned with this, the West Fife city of Dunfermline also reported a median selling time of 16 days.
Properties across the City of Edinburgh had a median selling time of 21 days, but looking closer at the individual areas of Edinburgh reveals variety in the trends. Homes in the City Centre and in the North West of Edinburgh spent longer on the market overall, taking 28 days to go under offer – nine and 14 days longer than the same time last year respectively. However, properties in Edinburgh East and South West moved the fastest, going under offer in just 18 days, and the comparison to last year is less drastic for both regions, with the time to sell slower by just three days and one day respectively.
If we look at specific property types, two-bedroom homes in Musselburgh were the quickest sellers, with a median time to under offer of just nine days, highlighting how popular this coastal town has become with buyers of all ages and stages.
Two-bedroom flats in nearby Portobello and Bonnington also sold quickly, reporting a median selling time of only 11 days.
23.5% of properties went to a closing date during August-October 2023, down from 33.0% the same time last year, showing how more balanced the market has become and how opportunity has increased for buyers in the market.
One-bed flats and three-bed houses were particularly popular with buyers
The influx of smaller properties into the market meant that one and two-bedroom flats were particularly popular with buyers during August-October 2023. One- and two-bedroom flats in ever-popular Leith sold in the highest volume during this period, while one-bedroom flats in Gorgie were also high on the list.
Family buyers were prevalent in the market too, as three-bedroom houses in both Dunfermline and the popular Edinburgh suburb of Corstorphine proved very popular, selling in high volumes.
New property listings remained similar to 2022, but some areas saw significant uplift
The volume of properties listed for sale across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders was very comparable to the same time last year, with a reduction of just 0.5%.
However, Dunfermline, Corstorphine and Leith all saw more properties come to the market during August-October. Corstorphine in particular reported a year-on-year increase of 30.6% in new properties listed for sale, surely welcome news for buyers looking for homes in this popular, family-friendly pocket of Edinburgh.
Penicuik, in Midlothian, also saw an increase in the volume of properties coming to the market compared to the same time last year, with listings up 20.4% on August-October 2022.
What does it all mean for the property market?
Paul Hilton, CEO of ESPC, said: “The property market has been the subject of much scrutiny and discussion in recent months, and across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders, we’re seeing much to analyse. The data is in line with what we have seen in recent months, with the market continuing to stabilise following several years of frenzied activity, while the financial climate has of course had a significant impact on the prospects of buyers looking to enter the market or scale up to larger properties. However, with the Bank of England’s decision to pause interest rates once again, we have good reason to be optimistic that buyers will regain confidence, and perhaps we will see positive repercussions of this decision in the weeks and months to come.
“The influx of smaller properties coming to the market, perhaps due to changes in rental and short-term let legislation meaning more landlords have decided to sell, is positive news for first-time buyers looking to enter the market, with many more options available to them, resulting in less-competitive bidding and the chance to secure a home for a more reasonable price. Sellers shouldn’t be disheartened by this; more buyers coming to the market can only be good news for those looking to sell their homes.
“Leith, Musselburgh, Dunfermline and Gorgie all offer fantastic options for starter homes, with the latter areas particularly well-suited to buyers who are looking to purchase a property under the LBTT threshold.
“Once again, the data highlights that each individual property sale is truly unique, and therefore, it remains essential to consider pricing strategy carefully when listing your home for sale. Choosing to work with an expert ESPC solicitor estate agent can make all the difference to sellers; research shows ESPC solicitor estate agents achieved 3% more over the Home Report valuation compared to non-ESPC agents, which could make a big difference when it comes to the budget for your next home.”
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