Podcast: One year until the Scottish Election

In this episode of the ESPC Property Show, Paul & Megan are joined by political analyst and co-founder of Message Matters, Andy Maciver to discuss what the next 12 months may hold in store for the political landscape in Scotland and in turn, the Scottish housing market.

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Key Insights

Political landscape in Scotland

Scotland’s political mood is complex and in flux. Labour narrowly beat the SNP in the general election, but the SNP remains favoured in Holyrood contests. Voters often support Labour to oust Conservatives at Westminster, while choosing the SNP for Scottish Parliament to advocate national interests. If re-elected in 2026, the SNP would mark nearly 25 years in power. This dominance is not driven by overwhelming popularity, but by the absence of a compelling alternative that voters trust to prioritise Scottish governance.

Fragmented politics and the return of coalitions

Scottish politics is increasingly fragmented, with Reform UK attracting disillusioned Labour and Conservative voters, despite lacking a Scottish presence. This division helps the SNP by splitting the opposition vote. As a result, a coalition government in 2026 looks likely. The SNP may renew its alliance with the Greens after leadership changes or build on recent cooperation with the Liberal Democrats. Fragmentation is reshaping the political landscape, making coalitions the norm rather than the exception, and reinforcing the SNP’s position despite its static support base.

Long-term political outlook

The SNP faces the challenge of maintaining long-term relevance, especially on independence. Labour struggles to present a Scottish identity distinct from Westminster politics. The most likely successor to the SNP may not yet exist - a purely Scottish, pro-UK party focused solely on Holyrood governance. Until such a force emerges, the SNP’s position remains largely unchallenged, not due to strong enthusiasm, but because no viable alternative aligns closely enough with Scottish voter priorities.

Housing policy and political priorities

All parties are expected to include housing in their 2026 manifestos, but real solutions may be lacking. While there is consensus on the need for more homes, plans often fall short on delivery mechanisms. Housing remains a second-tier political issue, rarely influencing voter choices. However, this pre-election period presents a strategic window for lobbying and shaping party agendas, as new governments tend to pursue more ambitious reforms early in their term when political capital is highest.

Response to the housing emergency

Despite declaring a housing emergency, the Scottish Government’s response has been minimal. Many observers believe the move was symbolic, not substantive. A year later, there is little policy change or increased investment. To address housing shortages and affordability, bold policy and private sector involvement are essential. Without this, progress will remain stalled. Real leadership will be needed to turn political gestures into impactful change.

Decarbonising homes: The Heat in Buildings Bill

The original Heat in Buildings Bill was withdrawn after criticism of its impracticality and narrow focus. A revised version is expected, aiming for more realistic implementation. Retrofitting homes to meet climate targets remains critical, but costly. The bill’s success will depend on creating a framework that supports affordability, practicality, and scale. Policy will need to acknowledge regional differences in housing stock and energy needs.

Financing green retrofits

Decarbonising homes hinges on who pays: the government, individuals, or lenders. Government funding alone is insufficient, and most households can’t cover retrofit costs outright. Lending is the most scalable solution. Green finance products already exist and could expand further with clearer government frameworks. Encouraging low-interest loans tied to energy savings could make retrofitting more viable. However, government strategy remains vague, and meaningful support for borrowing-led solutions is still missing from the national plan.