ESPC House Price Report - May 2011
Overview
- Most areas of East Central Scotland saw house prices decline in the three months to May. Falls this year generally offset sharp rises in the first half of 2010.
- The average house price in Edinburgh stood at £214,938 over the last three months - down 4.4% from £224,797 during the same period in 2010.
- The number of homes currently available for sale is 35% higher than would typically be seen at this time of year meaning buyers are in a strong negotiating position.
- 33% of homes sold at Fixed Price in Edinburgh achieved the asking price, down from 45% last year.
- The expectation is still for average house prices to show annual falls of between 3 and 5% in coming months.
Edinburgh
The average price of a home sold between March and May in Edinburgh was £214,938 - a year-on-year fall of 4.4%. The decline followed an annual rise of 11.8% during the same period in 2010 meaning that the new average is now 6.9% higher than that recorded in 2009.
David Marshall explained: "We saw sharp rises in price in most areas during the first few months of last year and the falls we are seeing now go some way to offset these. Most notably in Marchmont and Brunstfield the average price of a two-bedroom flat fell by 15% annually this year, but this followed an anomalous 35.6% rise last year. The average of £248,388 recorded over the last three months is 15.3% higher than that observed two years ago.
"Similar if less pronounced patterns were seen elsewhere in the Capital. In the City Centre a 14.5% annual rise in 2010 was followed by a 10.5% drop this year. Meanwhile, in Stockbridge and Comely Bank a 7.4% drop in the average price of a two-bedroom flat this year came on the back of a rise of 15.6% at this time last year.
"Low sales volumes will continue to be mean there is some volatility in figures but generally we expect to see prices continue to come down from the high levels seen in the middle of 2010."
Lothians
House prices across the Lothians followed a similar trend to those seen in Edinburgh with rises last year being followed by falls this year. In Midlothian a 7.8% annual drop this year followed a rise of 12.6% last year with the average now standing at £160,922. In West Lothian a 13.8% annual rise in 2010 was offset by a 15.8% drop in 2011 taking the average in the region to £142,978.
East Lothian bucked the trend somewhat with a 7.9% bringing the average house price between March and May to £215,847, however this rise was said to be unlikely to be prolonged.
David Marshall commented: "Unlike other areas in East Central Scotland, East Lothian saw a year-on-year rise in price during the last three months. This was largely fuelled by a small number of sales towards the upper end of the market however and we should see the average come back down in months ahead."
Dunfermline
The average house price in Dunfermline during the three months from March to May stood at £133,773 following a year-on-year fall of 3.7%. This marked the first time an annual fall in the three-month rolling average had been observed since January this year.
David Marshall commented: "The factors affecting the market in Edinburgh and the Lothians also hold true in Dunfermline. There are more properties for sale and fewer people able to buy meaning there is a high degree of competition amongst sellers. This should see prices in the town continue to come down on an annual basis over the next few months before levelling off at the end of the year."
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