ESPC House Price Report - July 2012

  • The average house price in Edinburgh between May and July was £222,916 - up 0.2% annually.
  • Prices in East Lothian, Midlothian and West Lothian showed little movement and were within 3% of 2011 levels.
  • In Dunfermline the average house price rose by 6.4% year-on-year but this rate of growth is not expected to be prolonged.
  • The number of homes selling continues to exceed levels seen last year by just over 10%.
  • Buyers remain in a position of relative strength in the market. Homes in Edinburgh are selling for an average of around 3% below Home Report valuation.
  • House prices are expected to remain broadly unchanged over the remainder of 2012.

Latest figures from ESPC show that the average house price in the three months to July stood at £222,916 following a small annual rise of 0.2%. There was also little movement in other areas of the Lothians with the average house prices in East Lothian, Midlothian and West Lothian all within 3% of levels recorded a year ago. In Dunfermline the average house price increased from £138,642 last year to £147,575 this - a year-on-year rise of 6.4%. The rate of increase is unlikely to be prolonged however with the town's average in coming months expected to return to 2011 levels.

2012 has seen a notable increase in the number of homes selling and this trend continued in the three months to July. Total house sales recorded by ESPC between May and July were 10.2% higher than during the same period in 2011.

Commenting on the results David Marshall, business analyst with ESPC, said: "In most areas prices haven't changed a great deal but the number of homes selling has been considerably higher than in recent years. Several factors have led to the rise in sales. Prices are lower than they were at the peak of the market and interest rates are still very low meaning property is more affordable for many people. We've also seen some first time buyers who have been saving over the last few years now have deposits in place to secure a mortgage which has led to an increase in activity at that end of the market. Finally, confidence in the market has risen somewhat due to the stability in prices in the local market over the last year or so.

"It's important to put the increase in activity in perspective. The growth comes from a low base and the number of homes selling is below what you'd have seen at the peak of the market. Buyers are still in a position of relative strength in the market and most homes are being secured for slightly below their Home Report valuation. With that said sellers coming to the market this year are enjoying greater success in finding buyers and that can only be good news for those looking to move home."

Edinburgh

The average price of a property sold in Edinburgh between May and July stood at £222,916 - an increase of 0.2% from £222,577 during the same period last year. Within the city there was again a mixed picture for prices. Annual rises were recorded in some segments including the City Centre (3.6%) and one bedroom flats in Gorgie and Dalry (6.7%). Other areas saw prices dip below 2011 levels. In Marchmont and Bruntsfield the average price of a two bedroom flat fell by 2.1% annually whilst in Stockbridge and Comely Bank the average price of a similar home stands at £229,728 following a year-on-year decline of 4.5%.

The percentage of homes achieving Home Report valuation in the Capital rose slightly from 28.8% in the three months to July last year to 33.3% this year. Properties in Edinburgh are now selling for an average of 2.7% below their Home Report valuation.

Lothians

Midlothian saw a small annual rise between May and July with a 0.4% increase taking the average from £180,845 a year ago to £180,119 this year. West Lothian also saw an increase with the average house price in the area over the last three months standing at £167,957 - 2.9% higher than was the case a year ago. In East Lothian prices inched downwards by 2.8% although the average house price was still the higher than in other areas of the Lothians at £224,609.201207_image1

Whilst prices have shown little movement over the last year there has been a substantial upturn in the number of homes being sold in the Lothians. Across the region the number of homes sold during the first seven months of the year has risen by 20.3% annually. The sharpest increase was observed in East Lothian where sales are 21.5% higher than last year.

David Marshall said: "It's been a stronger start to the year in terms of the number of homes being sold than we've seen for a few years. There hasn't been a great deal of movement in prices in the Lothians so far this year and that stability should help the market in the months ahead."

Dunfermline

The average house price in Dunfermline rose sharply in the three months to July. The average selling price of a property in the town between May and July was £147,575 - an increase of 6.4% from £138,642 last year. The increase stemmed from a rise in the proportion of larger properties selling in Dunfermline. Homes with four or more bedrooms accounted for 34% of sales this year compared to 28% last year.

David Marshall explained: "Over the last few months there's been a jump in the number of larger homes selling in Dunfermline and this has skewed the average house price upwards. This should settle down in coming months and we certainly wouldn't expect to see such a high level of house price inflation for a prolonged period."

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