Property price research methodology & summary of findings

Topics

Background 

In the summer of 2023, ESPC began researching whether there was a difference in the sale prices achieved for properties marketed through ESPC member firms compared with the prices achieved by “independents” (non-members). This research was then completed in 2024. ESPC hired the help of market research company Progressive to validate this research.  

ESPC have previously carried out similar research in 2017, 2018 and 2019, 2022 and 2023. 

Method

The overarching methodological approach was similar to previous years:

  • ESPC recorded all properties listed for sale on Rightmove in relevant postcodes (i.e., those covered by ESPC) over a single calendar month – June 2024. This included properties registered late in the day on the 30th of June which were recorded as being live on the 1st of July. The postcodes covered Edinburgh and the surrounding regions (the Lothians, Dumfries and Galloway, Fife) – EH1-EH17, EH21, EH22, EH26, EH27, EH33, EH39, EH52, EH55, DG1, KA11, KA12, KY11 and KY12. 
  • ESPC collated Home Report valuations for each property listed and the date of the valuation – this enables a fair and consistent comparison for each property, whereas the market price would not (which tends to reflect an agreement made between the seller and the agent working on behalf of the seller).
  • ESPC then recorded the final sale price of the properties using the Registers of Scotland (RoS) ScotLis site. This happened around eight months after the initial recording of all properties listed for sale – in early 2024 – due to the length of time it took for some property sales to go through settlement.
  • ESPC produced a master spreadsheet including the following variables:
    • Rightmove ID,
    • property description,
    • asking price,
    • offer type,
    • property address,
    • postcode area,
    • purchase date,
    • selling price,
    • agent,
    • listed on Rightmove,
    • agent affiliation,
    • Home Report Valuation.
  • The spreadsheet was used to run a calculation to determine the ‘Advantage of ESPC’ – i.e., whether ESPC-affiliated selling agents were more likely than independent selling agents to achieve a higher HR-to-sale-value ratio. The calculation was simple:
    1. Divide the total ScotLis sold price by the total HR valuation to determine the average percentage of HR valuation properties in key postcodes sold for.
    2. Filter results by ESPC-affiliated and independent agents to determine the difference between both groups.
  • Progressive validated the spreadsheet and checked the calculations to confirm the percentage of Home Report valuation achieved by ESPC members and non-members.

Results 

In total, 1,322 properties were listed on Rightmove in the month of June 2023 across the key postcode areas covered by the ESPC. Of these, 736 (56%) were ultimately sold between June 2023 and January 2024 (although the selling price for a handful was unavailable, so these are not included in the calculations below).[1] Most of these (544 – 74%) were sold by ESPC-affiliated agents, the remainder (26%) by independents.

Properties generally sold over the Home Report valuation of the property (431 of the 736 properties sold where a selling price was available – equivalent to 59% of properties). Excluding properties that sold at same price as the Home Report valuation, around one in four (171 of the 736 properties – 23%) properties sold for less than they were valued – this was almost twice as many as in 2022 (when 13% sold for less than they were valued). The average value of properties sold was £312,83.

[1] Please note that 35 properties were not included in the ESPC Advantage calculations either because the selling price was unavailable, or the Home Report Valuation was unavailable.

The following calculations show that the percentage of the Home Report valuation achieved by ESPC-affiliated agents was 103% compared with 101% for independent agents, suggesting that the ‘advantage of ESPC’ remains in the market.