ESPC House Price Report - January 2011

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Overview
  • In the three months to January the average house price in Edinburgh stood at £214,222 following an annual increase of 1.1%.
  • The rise in the overall average was fuelled by a change in the mix of properties selling, with larger homes accounting for a greater proportion of sales than normal.
  • Comparison of 'like-for-like' prices for homes of similar size reveals that in most cases values are around 5% lower than 12 months ago.
  • In East Lothian the average selling price of a home over the last three months dipped to £197,442 following an annual decline of 6.7%.
  • West Lothian saw a sharp annual fall of 16.3%, although this followed a 22.9% rise last year with the average in the area still higher than two years ago.
  • The average house price in Dunfermline was almost unchanged on the same period last year, with a 0.4% decline taking the average to £129,812.
  • The number of homes for sale remains above historic norms allowing buyers more success in negotiations with sellers. Around three out of four Fixed Price sales over the last three months were completed for less than the asking price.
  • The likelihood remains that prices will ease back by 3-5% in most areas during the first half of 2011 before levelling off later in the year.

 

Regional Analysis - Edinburgh

The average house price in Edinburgh during the three months from November to January stood at £214,222 following a modest annual rise of 1.1%. The increase was attributable to a rise in the number of larger homes selling however, with comparison of selling prices of similar homes revealing that in most cases values were actually around 5% lower than they were a year ago.

In Gorgie and Dalry the average price of a one-bedroom flat fell by 3.1% from £106,798 to £103,462, while in Stockbridge and Comely Bank a drop of 5.2% took the average selling price of a two-bedroom flat to £219,237. The average price of a three-bedroom semi-detached property in the city's suburbs showed the sharpest decline of 11.9%, although this followed a similarly sharp rise of 18% a year ago meaning prices were still above levels seen two years ago.

David Marshall commented: "Although the number of properties coming onto the market eased late last year supply has generally outstripped demand over the last 12-18 months. We're now starting to see this being reflected in house prices in the Capital, with most areas of the city seeing prices around 5% lower than they were at this point last year."

 

Regional Analysis - The Lothians

The average house price in East Lothian during the three months to January stood at £197,442 following an annual fall of 6.7%. This represented the lowest rolling three-month average recorded in the area since June 2009 when the average stood at £186,860.

David Marshall explained: "In the immediate aftermath of the credit crunch the market for family homes remained comparatively strong, and as East Lothian has a good stock of quality family housing the local market outperformed much of the rest of the country for some time. Naturally no market works in isolation though and we're now starting to see prices ease back in East Lothian."

In West Lothian the average house price fell by 16.3% annually to £157,451. This followed a similarly sharp rise in late 2009 though when annual inflation stood at 22.9%.

Mr Marshall commented: "We saw prices spike in West Lothian late in 2009 due to a small number of sales of large properties. It's not unusual to seem some degree of volatility in regional figures from month to month and the annual fall in the average this period represents a return to more normal levels."

 

Regional Analysis - West Fife & Kinross

In Dunfermline the average house price in the three months to January stood at £129,182. This was almost unchanged on the level of £129,763 recorded during the same period a year ago.

David Marshall, business analyst with ESPC explained: "Whilst most areas have seen a decline in prices, house values in Dunfermline have been broadly unchanged over the last year. Property in the town is more affordable than in many areas of East Central Scotland - and particularly when compared to Edinburgh - and with buyers today becoming ever more cash conscious this had made it an attractive option for many. There's no question it's still a difficult market for sellers, but this comparative affordability has helped house prices in Dunfermline hold firm at a time when most other areas are seeing values fall."

 

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