ESPC House Price Report - December 2011

• The average house price in Edinburgh over the last three months of 2011 was £221,061 - 3.5% higher than during the same period in 2010.
• Within the Capital there was a mixed picture for house prices. Smaller properties typically saw values decline while the value of larger homes increased in most areas.
• In West Lothian the average house price fell by 11.1% annually though this fall was, in part, due to an increase in the proportion of smaller properties selling in the area.
• In Dunfermline the average house price now stands at £124,710, down 0.2% annually.
• Overall, house prices are likely to remain relatively unchanged over the coming year but the balance of risk is weighted to the downside.

Overview

Latest house price figures from ESPC - the largest property marketing firm in East Central Scotland - reveal a mixed picture for house prices in the three months to December. Whilst the value of larger family homes in many areas continued to increase, the average price of smaller properties in areas previously popular with first-time buyers was found to be lower than during the same period in 2010.

Commenting on the latest figures David Marshall, business analyst with ESPC said: "Factors that have constrained demand in recent times such as concerns over job security and the high deposit requirements needed to get access to better mortgage deals have affected first time buyers most. As a result, whilst the overall average house price is a little higher than it was a year ago, the value of smaller homes which would have previously attracted demand from those looking to get on the property ladder has declined.

"Looking ahead, 2012 is likely to see a continuation of the trends we saw last year. The overall average house price is likely to remain relatively unchanged over the course of the year but the market will again be most difficult for those selling smaller properties. The balance of risk is weighted towards the downside at this stage with the possibility of rising unemployment and further difficulties in the Eurozone both presenting not insubstantial threats to market stability.

"Generally speaking the best advice for those looking to move home is still to sell before you buy. Anyone wishing to secure a quick sale is likely to have to show a willingness to negotiate on price with prospective buyers, though obviously when it comes time for them to buy they can look to secure their next home for less than they may have expected to pay.

Edinburgh

The average house price in Edinburgh between October and December stood at £221,061 following an annual increase on 3.5%.

Despite the increase in the citywide average there was a mixed picture for house prices within the Capital. Typically the value of smaller properties in more affordable areas was found to have declined over the last year whilst values of larger family homes had risen in many areas.

For example, the average price of a one bedroom flat in Leith Walk and Easter Road during the last quarter of 2011 was £96,382 - down 8.8% from £105,706 during the last quarter of 2010. Similarly, the average price of a one bedroom flat in Dalry and Gorgie dropped by 3.1% annually and now stands at £96,563.

On the other hand the average price of a three bedroom semi-detached house in the suburbs increased by 4.3% annually from £231,668 in the fourth quarter of 2010 to £241,573 during the same period in 2011. The average price of a four bedroom detached houses also rose by 4.3% annually to £396,456.

Lothians

West Lothian saw the sharpest decline in house price of any area in East Central Scotland with a year-on-year fall of 11.1% bringing the average down from £160,130 to £142,359. The sharp fall was partly attributable to a decrease in the proportion of larger properties selling.

David Marshall explained: "During the fourth quarter of 2010 houses with three or more bedrooms made up over 68% all sales recorded in West Lothian. In the last three months of 2011 this figure stood at just 62%. This shift in the mix of properties selling has helped skew the latest average figure somewhat."

In East Lothian the average house price fell by 3.7% annually from £198,991 at the end of 2010 to £191,625 in 2011. Meanwhile, there was little change in house prices in Midlothian. A year-on-year rise of just 0.6% took the average house price in the region from £168,345 to £169,438.

Dunfermline

The average selling price of a property in Dunfermline between October and December of 2011 was £124,710. This represents a fall of 0.2% - or just £290 - from the figure of £125,000 recorded during the last three months of 2010.

Commenting on these figures David Marshall said: "In the second half of 2011 we've seen a great deal of stability in the average house price in Dunfermline with only very small annual changes observed over most of that period. The market is still a challenging one for sellers. There are more homes for sale in the town than there are active buyers meaning that when it comes time to negotiate on price the balance of power favours the buyer. Sales volumes are still comparatively low so we may see some volatility in the average house price in the town from month to month but over the course of the year as a whole values are likely to remain broadly in line with 2011 levels."

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